Outlook – Fourth Quarter 2025

Our key messages:

World Economy

European data have surprised to the upside in recent months, prompting upward revisions to this year’s growth estimates.
In the U.S., signals are mixed: despite a softer labour market, third-quarter GDP likely proved solid after a subdued first half. We expect some loss of momentum, but a recession is not our base case.
While global trade data show pockets of tariff impact, there is no evidence of a broad-based deterioration so far.

Capital Markets

The mix of activity, inflation, monetary policy, valuations and, above all, earnings growth remains supportive for equities, including in Europe. With European and U.S. indices near the upper end of historical ranges, upside is limited but does not necessarily imply an imminent correction. From a sector perspective, Healthcare (pharma and med-tech) looks particularly attractive after recent weakness.
With yields expected to remain broadly stable, medium-term maturities (2–5 years) remain attractive for bond purchases.
We maintain gold as a strategic core allocation, while recommending selective profit-taking where portfolio weights have drifted above targets after the rally.