Outlook – Second Quarter 2024

Our key messages :

World Economy

In recent months, global economic data has shown a slight overall improvement and some broadening of the upturn, with growth remaining very slow in Europe, however.
The reduction in inflation towards central bank targets is not yet complete, especially not in the services sector. Against this backdrop, the recent slightly higher-than-expected inflation figures in Europe and the US come as no surprise.
Nevertheless, the outlook for slightly lower central-bank interest rates remains intact, with moderate interest-rate cuts by the ECB and the Federal Reserve due primarily in the second half of the year. With inflation in the target range of 0-2% since last summer, the SNB was able to cut its key rate in March.

Capital Markets

Bond prices have corrected, with the medium-term outlook remaining positive.
After the rally that resumed last October, a lack of fresh catalysts has made stock markets somewhat correction-prone, though the still-positive overall news flow argues against a significant correction.