Outlook – Third Quarter 2025

Our key messages:

World Economy

Economic growth in Europe and Asia is largely unchanged and in line with expectations, though there are signs of weakness in the US. Inflation figures have been lower than forecast in both the euro area and the US – with a continued downtrend likely in the euro area.
We expect US import tariffs to eventually settle at a significantly higher level than they were at the beginning of the year. The US economy will feel the negative effects of tariffs the most. In Europe, these effects will be smaller, and higher government spending, primarily in Germany, will be supportive. The Chinese government is keeping the economy on track in line with its targets.
Military conflicts are usually relevant for the economy and the capital markets if they lead to a sharp rise in commodity prices, particularly oil prices, which is currently not the case.

Capital Markets

Depending on the news flow, the coming months could remain volatile, though the equity market outlook is not necessarily negative. Setbacks in equities would constitute a buying opportunity. Medium-term bonds remain attractive. The US dollar keeps weakening.
Starting next year at the latest, we expect the news flow and economic outlook to normalise